- Models in credit card fraud
- Rule-in FLA with charge in CA
- Anomaly, 3 tvs in one day
- predictive model-charges for multiple tvs out of state after a one dollar charge on wednesday
- social network
- charges at address known to be used by bad actor
- Traditional analytics approach
- run a model, use top tier and run an investigatio
- Currently running all models mentioned. Building a good data set.
- This group is required to publish a fraud prevention report to congress.
- They stopped prevented or identified 115 million in improper payments which is a 3 to 1 savings.
- 536 leads for new investigations
- New info for 511 existing investigations
- Models are working
- What is the command center?
- Center for detection and investigation drivng integrity and innovation
- Paradigm shift
- Introduces mission
- Speeds up actions
- Old way
- Have a lead
- do an investigation
- Take some action, i.e. remove provider or overpayment
- Savings
- LOTS OF people involved
- New approach
- Identify better leads faster.
- Introduced command center to bring all people together in room, turn off blackberries, and solve problems.
- What's next for the FRAUD PREVENTION SYSTEM
- Evaluating feasability of expanding analytics in medicaie
- There are 56 medicaid programs which is a problem.
- Activities to analyze feasability
- focus groups with state medicaid agencies
- evaluate outcomes of introduing post-payment medicaid data into FPS (e.g. if fraudulent in medicare, will aso be for medicaid
- Also providing technical assistance
- Prevention-partnership is designed to share info and best practices to improve det5ection and prevention.
- Lots o partners
- 11 partners contributed to first information exchange.
Industry Expert Panel
Daniel porter-pinpointing the persuadables, convicning the right voters to support barak obama
- Big obama supporter
- People were writing him off.
- Pundits ranged from everywhere
- Nate silver said obama was toast
- challenge was how to persuade people to vote for obama
- simulatede electionb ased on different turnout scenarios
- Under each scenario, obama could not win unless he changed people's mind
- How persuade president was a better choice than mitt romney?
- 2 schools of though-election a referendeum
- important for campaign to make sure it was a choice
- hope and change was 2008
- How make sure message doesn't backfire?
- How determine which voters the campaign hopes to reach?
- Targeting swing voters nothing new.
- Targeting independents
- From campaign manager-measure everything
- Mandate to bring analytics to every facet of massive operation in just oneo year
- Models included
- support
- turnout
- generaic national support
- contactability
- many others
- Persuasion challenge
- not trying to measure who is likely to support obama
- not trying to measure who is undecided
- not tryin gto measure who cares about what isssue
- Trying to measure who is likely to change his or her mind from voting for rmney to voting for obama
- How did democracts do persuasion before 2012
- Built support models for all registered voters essentially probability a voter would support a democrat
- Messages were tested in focus groups with small numbers of voters
- Small sample size issue.
- Basing it on what people like, but not on what is persuasion, the true outcome of interest.
- For persuasion, targeted those who had middle support scores, or people who were independents
- Prior to 2012, they went after those who had a middle score, i.e. on the fence
- middle person means they don't have strong partison characteristics
- Many people not interested in politics
- Apathetic
- Low turnout
- In 2012, they could easily differentiate supporters from non-supporters
- Persuasion modeling had early promise
- benefit of reelection is that you know who is the nominee.
- asdf
- sadf
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